Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the victorious side are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue this point is imminent, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unification has hidden the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators endorses unification or the status quo. Both authors two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and social figures, past examples and structural examples.
Debates range over identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they favour unity but oppose increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British culture.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, justified arguments, he commented. "One side will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but each side has has something to gain from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish matter."
